Chance of Success

Understand how resilient your retirement plan really is

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Retirement planning isn't about predicting the future perfectly. It's about understanding how well your plan holds up when the future doesn't cooperate.

Ready Aim Retire's Chance of Success helps you measure the strength of your plan across many possible outcomes, so you can plan with confidence instead of hope.

(Portfolio Balance)
Monte Carlo simulation showing chance of success

Chance of Success

Stress test against history

Markets don't move in straight lines.

Ready Aim Retire evaluates your plan against historical market data to show how it might have performed across different periods, including challenging ones.

You can see:

  • How downturns impact sustainability
  • Whether your plan recovers after volatility
  • When risk is concentrated in early retirement years
Chance of Success historical results showing portfolio balance projections across 106 simulations
Retirement Portfolio Growth chart with 82% Chance of Success and Returns and Allocations panel

Chance of Success

What "Chance of Success" means

Chance of Success estimates how often your retirement plan is projected to meet your spending needs without running out of money, based on your assumptions, market history, and plan structure.

It helps answer questions like:

  • How sensitive is my plan to market volatility?
  • What happens if returns are lower than expected?
  • How much margin for error do I really have?

It's not a promise, it's perspective.

Go beyond single-outcome projections

A single projection can look great, or terrifying, depending on assumptions.

Ready Aim Retire shows you:

  • A range of possible outcomes
  • How often your plan succeeds under different market conditions
  • The tradeoffs between spending, risk, and longevity

This gives you a fuller, more honest picture of your plan's resilience.

Improve your odds with better decisions

Chance of Success isn't about chasing 100%. It's about making informed adjustments.

You can instantly see how changes affect your plan:

  • Adjust spending levels
  • Change retirement timing
  • Modify asset allocation assumptions
  • Revisit withdrawal strategies

Small changes can dramatically improve long-term outcomes.

Plan with eyes wide open

Knowing your Chance of Success doesn't lock you into a single path, it gives you options.

You'll know:

  • Where your plan is strong
  • Where it's sensitive
  • What levers you can pull if life changes

That's how confidence is built.

A quick note on probabilities

All projections are based on assumptions and historical data. They are tools for understanding risk, not guarantees of future performance. Ready Aim Retire is designed to help you explore possibilities, not predict outcomes.

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